Look again for "his" movie at Kinopoisk

On the way from work, I remembered one remarkable mathematical method and decided to take a closer look at the stages of film search development and find out what film bots are most waiting for this year.

It was almost obvious to me that when registering, Film Search gives users ID in order. Fresh users have a number slightly less than 15 000 000. I will not allow the download of this site for so many users. Well, then you can try to pull the pages in random order and look at random users.

Quite an interesting option, this is the date of registration.

A bit of Chinese code will tell us the number of days from January 1, 0000 to registration
``function [ DateNumber ] = find_datenumber( date_reg ) m(1).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(2).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(3).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(4).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(5).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(6).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(7).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(8).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(9).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(10).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(11).m = strfind(date_reg,''); m(12).m = strfind(date_reg,''); for jj = 1:12 if ~isempty(m(jj).m) month = jj; end m(jj).m=[]; end year = str2num(date_reg(end-3:end)); day = str2num(date_reg(1:2)); DateNumber = datenum(year,month,day); end` `

And now we can see the speed with which the number of KP users grew:

There are already several breaks in the rate of growth in the number of users and a mess with two sites and their common association in the framework of the Kinopoisk 2.0 project.

And of course, some kind of misunderstanding in the fall of 2017, which can be viewed closer:

It so happened that in 4 weeks starting from August 18, approximately 160,000 more users registered, beyond the expected ...

It turns out the Kinopoisk employees admitted hacking 50,000 accounts and kept modestly silent about 160,000 bots.

Let's collect a little more random pages from this date range. I got a quick download of 3097 pages. Exploring the user's page for rows

` `'premier_rus/vt/all/#list'` `

find out who is waiting for how many movies.

It is interesting for me to look at those who are waiting for exactly one film, but there were 179 of these (5.78%).
Let's try to download their pages of expectations and find out what news they expect to see.
It turned out that as many as 162 of them (90.5%) are waiting for the film number 1007496 which, at the time of this writing, has 99% positive expectations out of 11,926 votes.

But let's go back to the number of users for this suspicious month (214442), let's see how much will be 214442 * 0.905 * 0.0578 = 11217.
Do you think it is necessary to count the confidence interval for this assessment, or does it seem to be true?

UPD1: 100% of the found waiting ones have standard nicks for bots ...

total votes / vk / nick on CP
13 'http://vk.com/dankoy_bugaga' 'DanilPavlov722'
9 'http://vk.com/fghvcb' 'AntonTishko10375'
5 'http://vk.com/id92102535' 'AnnaBeliantseva67'
6 'http://vk.com/id136915044' 'AzimutTumiza44'
9 'http://vk.com/id298795529' 'RoxanaRoxi4094'
5 'http://vk.com/id15340078' 'IvanPuskov56'
4 'http://vk.com/id327281250' 'AzemUrkunova267'
6 'http://vk.com/danilmerkulov2002' 'DanilMerkulov516'
21 'http://vk.com/id87308547' 'IanaSashchikova40885'
11 'http://vk.com/id224786646' 'OlesyaHamlova22'
12 'http://vk.com/id411721270' 'AleksandrZatonskikh171'
13 'http://vk.com/diedinchi' 'DianaMalovana1318'
4 'http://vk.com/id199968256' 'IlonaMaikova33326'
5 'http://vk.com/id297277507' 'VasilinaBuchinska15'
13 'http://vk.com/id357904487' 'NatellaKulumbegova74'
8 'http://vk.com/id270147883' 'AsemaKali32808'
9 'http://vk.com/id360592783' 'DianaBuraz53265'
7 'http://vk.com/id409453355' 'SashaMorozova668'
7 'http://vk.com/id426353122' 'AnfisaMinullinaVedernikova21'
7 'http://vk.com/id184303431' 'KsiushaSazonova5915'
10 'http://vk.com/id362670598' 'VgmcvgVsg7076'
5 'http://vk.com/id432576407' 'DenisPletnev00321'
17 'http://vk.com/id146778592' 'NastasiaAkhshimina9609'
10 'http://vk.com/id98661577' 'MustafaKhamkhoev6556'
5 'http://vk.com/supergirl033' 'KristinaProts19610'
5 'http://vk.com/id209579410' 'OlenkaSorokoum810'
8 'http://vk.com/id320134441' 'KseniiaAleksandrovna80568'
13 'http://vk.com/id409174975' 'ViacheslavGoriushkin10'
11 'http://vk.com/id368023349' 'VetpomoshchSpb72'
4 'http://vk.com/id260500982' 'NastiushkaModniushka70'
5 'http://vk.com/yarikonoshko' 'IarikOnoshko55'
11 'http://vk.com/id10372681' 'ArtemEremin6676'
23 'http://vk.com/id2850209' 'IuliiaFedorova26519'
11 'http://vk.com/id321456888' 'AniaShutenko98'
5 'http://vk.com/id403260744' 'LiubaKuznets32846'
6 'http://vk.com/id341002444' 'UrolQuldoshev743'
6 'http://vk.com/alone_one_love' 'ZabarShlepin91583'
5 'http://vk.com/id347786628' 'KarinaTeteriuk61647'
12 'http://vk.com/id279753801' 'MarinaBoikova29'
9 'http://vk.com/id144185226' 'AgshinAliyev1954'
16 'http://vk.com/id336034640' 'IraGutsuliak079'
12 'http://vk.com/id425039331' 'SalamatZhalelov32'
4 'http://vk.com/id52080529' 'DeniskoTilahyn39901'
7 'http://vk.com/sasha_pupsik' 'AleksandrBorkin981'
10 'http://vk.com/id382813402' 'DenisKorablev2342'
3 'http://vk.com/id248919198' 'TaimasIbragimov3479'
11 'http://vk.com/id170829799' 'IliaChetverikov10'
5 'http://vk.com/id241059224' 'AgataLeonova15871'
6 'http://vk.com/id103892275' 'MaksimIurev3144'
6 'http://vk.com/id413628460' 'FearNesferia022'
6 'http://vk.com/id277916944' 'TimurGabdulkhaev4324'
7 'http://vk.com/id155455691' 'EkaterinaVasileva2758'
10 'http://vk.com/id393292416' 'KseniiaPriazhnikova79'
8 'http://vk.com/dorogalka' 'GalinaTerekhina00'
15 'http://vk.com/id308408675' 'RustamBagautdinov972'
9 'http://vk.com/id132890908' 'AntoninaPupkova99258'
4 'http://vk.com/id428414207' 'BogdanVeisman928'
7 'http://vk.com/id389279486' 'KatiaKhudiakova989'
8 'http://vk.com/annagorsch' 'AnnaGorshkova7511'
5 'http://vk.com/id432252923' 'UmutbekSulaimanov07'
10 'http://vk.com/id1714477' 'BossNeferson21'
20 'http://vk.com/id408492500' 'ntonksenov456'
5 'http://vk.com/lorenso14' 'DanilaBeloumov30948'
5 'http://vk.com/id34492157' 'FanilFatkullin75'
11 'http://vk.com/elana200' 'ElanaShiribazarova42865'
7 'http://vk.com/id295622045' 'AkbotaSerikbai544'
5 'http://vk.com/id312242487' 'LeshaSoklakov15'
6 'http://vk.com/id266713212' 'EgorAndrianov03549'
11 'http://vk.com/id8947894' 'AntonNipein6321'
6 'http://vk.com/id276739161' 'IuliiaIvchenko64031'
12 'http://vk.com/id134810319' 'IgorSlavnov28'
14 'http://vk.com/id293715354' 'ZulfanGimazov573'
9 'http://vk.com/anyakot98' 'AniaKotova81'
10 'http://vk.com/id244403198' 'SnezhanaPasechnik443'
10 'http://vk.com/id6578666' 'ElenaPankratova007'
9 'http://vk.com/id438789606' 'DariaEgorova42534'
19 'http://vk.com/id4173316' 'SergeiFilippenko68'
4 'http://vk.com/id123783560' 'MashaVinarchik9170'
9 'http://vk.com/aprosina2000' 'IrinaAprosina10072'
12 'http://vk.com/raniyasr' 'RaniiaZakirova82449'
7 'http://vk.com/idteresa1301' 'TeresaMisak96931'
5 'http://vk.com/gajer' 'ValeriiKushmanov34'
5 'http://vk.com/id279218888' 'EvgeniiValerevich932'
11 'http://vk.com/id160976473' 'SoldatSkorbi1820'
9 'http://vk.com/id193861854' 'lliaBoiko7708'
5 'http://vk.com/id157771403' 'AleksandraIvanova098'
8 'http://vk.com/zorigoo' 'ZorigooGanbaatar962'
5 'http://vk.com/id336232098' 'ElenaKursk5413'
4 'http://vk.com/id407474324' 'StepanTarasenko95334'
9 'http://vk.com/id300917725' 'AlekaAkmetaeva9640'
6 'http://vk.com/id438610962' 'KsiushKsiushKsiusha340'
12 'http://vk.com/id139865078' 'AkhmatKachmazov8465'
4 'http://vk.com/id266669339' 'VaniaRudskoi22622'
7 'http://vk.com/id75822863' 'KaterinaRiabova71'
4 'http://vk.com/id252707102' 'SlenderMen2285'
7 'http://vk.com/id202337151' 'EgorBelov95'
10 'http://vk.com/id440746870' 'AnatoliySolomigin376'
5 'http://vk.com/id319820233' 'VeronikaGlazkova168'
5 'http://vk.com/id285952817' 'AnzhelaZarudneva41'
5 'http://vk.com/id68063370' 'IgorAkoltsev62732'
14 'http://vk.com/id20759319' 'IakovOchinskii2230'
4 'http://vk.com/id381163258' 'OdkoOyuka5996'
4 'http://vk.com/id223833044' 'DimHarit101'
8 'http://vk.com/id403523323' 'ShedouFazber74'
10 'http://vk.com/id277988982' 'ChristinaPopovits539'
8 'http://vk.com/leonidermolin' 'LeonidErmolin40'
8 'http://vk.com/tiptoptolik' 'AnatoliiTrofimets7838'
6 'http://vk.com/id304121001' 'JackKloun19'
5 'http://vk.com/id362268438' 'TfifhaHamza49565'
5 'http://vk.com/id373748452' 'LenaNikitina297'
5 'http://vk.com/id258381745' 'EgorEgorov7001'
13 'http://vk.com/id258760596' 'YoucefMaximos88'
5 'http://vk.com/safinirek' 'IrekSafin6041'
9 'http://vk.com/id317866492' 'KaukenZhumagulov730'
5 'http://vk.com/id375479913' 'MartinMartin01'
5 'http://vk.com/id333303631' 'SholpanAiymbetova4152'
10 'http://vk.com/mama.lena1' 'ElenaGerasimova74120'
5 'http://vk.com/id138376268' 'TimurGabbasov767'
16 'http://vk.com/id379838474' 'SaidBaratov4747'
5 'http://vk.com/karty_mafia' 'Andreieplyshov71'
8 'http://vk.com/xaker0797' 'SergeiZviagintsev250'
5 'http://vk.com/id321528834' 'SofiiaLazutkina1439'
5 'http://vk.com/id29527564' 'OliaFedchak785'
4 'http://vk.com/i_smail2810' 'KatiushkaShigurova610'
15 'http://vk.com/id188764154' 'NataliaMilova42'
14 'http://vk.com/id112591277' 'AlekseiTuranov33276'
6 'http://vk.com/id275981606' 'SiuzannaAbramova0396'
11 'http://vk.com/id342286734' 'IuliaIvanova44442'
17 'http://vk.com/id357289842' 'AleksandrKonovalov48'
14 'http://vk.com/lozinskaya15' 'LeraLozinskaia971'
11 'http://vk.com/id329494983' 'MaksimSamsonov0617'
12 'http://vk.com/id378525128' 'AnnaLevdikova38'
5 'http://vk.com/id95818856' 'IgorKolosov494'
5 'http://vk.com/id397178740' 'ElizavetaKhamitova16'
13 'http://vk.com/id225280468' 'AlinochkaUvarova23505'